The second presidency of Donald Trump has already sparked intense debate among experts and analysts. Michał Urbańczyk, a renowned American studies expert and professor at the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, sheds light on what this new term might mean for the international scene, particularly in regards to the United States’ relations with China and Europe.
The Battle for Global Supremacy
According to Prof. Urbańczyk, the United States will continue to pressure China to relinquish its bid for global hegemony, which will be a dominant theme of Trump’s second term. The expert notes that the world is currently in a state of interregnum, where old rules no longer apply, and new ones have not been established. In this power vacuum, the United States is trying to maintain its global dominance, which is proving increasingly difficult due to China’s rapid economic rise.
Economic and Military Confrontation
Trump will likely continue the economic and military confrontation with China, which began during his first term. This trade war is already underway, and its temperature is expected to rise. The question is whether this conflict will remain economic or will also take on a military dimension. Prof. Urbańczyk notes that Europe will be forced to take sides in this conflict, which could lead to significant conflicts within the Western world.
Europe’s Dilemma
Western European countries are hesitant to give up their lucrative economic relations with China, which presents a challenge for the United States. Trump will likely exert pressure on Europe to take a stance against China, leading to potential conflicts. Prof. Urbańczyk emphasizes that Poland, as a developing country and part of the Western world, will have opportunities to benefit from cooperation with the United States, but it must be able to seize these opportunities.
Social and Cultural Shifts
In terms of social and cultural changes in the United States, Prof. Urbańczyk predicts a significant shift to the center. Trump has already begun to dismantle radical programs and policies aimed at promoting equality and combating discrimination based on gender, race, and identity. The expert cites the recent law passed by Congress banning transgender athletes from competing with biological women as an example of this shift.
Business and Identity
Moreover, Prof. Urbańczyk notes that big business is abandoning woke ideology and supporting minority groups, which is a significant trend. The expert argues that this shift is part of a larger process that has been underway in the United States for some time, driven in part by the Supreme Court’s ruling on affirmative action. As a result, Americans will likely focus less on issues related to identity, race, and origin, and more on merit-based evaluations.
Implications for Poland
In conclusion, Prof. Urbańczyk emphasizes that Poland, as a developing country, will have to navigate this complex international landscape carefully. By seizing opportunities for cooperation with the United States, Poland can benefit from its growing economic and political influence. However, failure to do so could result in Poland losing its current position.
Sources:
* Michał Urbańczyk, „Trump’s Second Term: What Does It Mean for the International Scene?” (interview)
* World Bank, „Global Economic Prospects” (2022)
* European Commission, „EU-China Relations” (2022)
* The New York Times, „Trump’s Trade War with China” (2022)
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