Poland, a country with a rich history and cultural heritage, is facing a significant demographic challenge. According to a recent prognosis by the Ministry of Finance, the country’s population is expected to decline from 37.468 million in 2024 to 36.574 million in 2029. This trend raises concerns about the implications for the Polish economy, workforce, and social security system.
The data reveals that the population of people in the pre-working age group (0-17 years old) will continue to decrease, reaching a level 636,000 lower in 2029 than in 2024. This decline is accompanied by a reduction in the working-age population (men aged 18-64 and women aged 18-59), which will be 610,000 lower in 2029 than in 2024. On the other hand, the population of people in the post-working age group (men aged 65 and above and women aged 60 and above) will increase, reaching a level 350,000 higher in 2029 than in 2024.
These shifts have significant implications for the country’s economic and social landscape. The share of the pre-working age population in the total population will decrease from 18.1% in 2024 to 16.8% in 2029. The share of the working-age population will also decline, from 58.1% in 2024 to 57.9% in 2029. This means that there will be fewer people contributing to the workforce and paying social security contributions, which could put pressure on the state budget.
The demographic changes will also affect the dependency ratio, which measures the number of dependents (children and elderly) per 1000 people of working age. In 2024, there were 408 people of post-working age and 720 people of non-working age per 1000 people of working age. By 2029, this ratio is expected to increase to 437 people of post-working age and 727 people of non-working age per 1000 people of working age.
To put these numbers into perspective, Poland’s population is aging rapidly, and the country is facing a significant shortage of skilled labor. According to Eurostat, Poland’s old-age dependency ratio is expected to increase from 23.4% in 2020 to 35.6% in 2060, which means that the proportion of elderly people (65 and above) in the population will increase significantly. This trend is exacerbated by a low total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.43, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1.
The Polish government is aware of these challenges and has been implementing policies to address them. For example, the government has introduced measures to encourage immigration, such as simplified procedures for foreigners to obtain work permits and residence visas. Additionally, the government has been investing in education and training programs to increase the skills and competitiveness of the Polish workforce.
In conclusion, Poland’s demographic shift is a complex and pressing issue that requires urgent attention. The government, businesses, and civil society must work together to develop strategies to mitigate the impact of a shrinking population and ensure the country’s long-term economic and social sustainability. This can be achieved by investing in education, innovation, and human capital, as well as promoting immigration and family-friendly policies.
Sources:
* Ministry of Finance, „Demographic Prognosis for Social Security Fund”
* Eurostat, „Old-age dependency ratio”
* World Bank, „Fertility rate, total (births per woman)”
